Poverty and inequality: identifying the socioeconomic factors that determine the probability of poverty in Ecuador 2024

Abstract

Poverty is one of Ecuador's main social and economic challenges, reflecting inequalities. In 2023, according to the National Survey of Employment, Unemployment, and Underemployment, 26% of the population lived below the poverty line, revealing a significant segment struggling to meet basic needs, which affects their quality of life and development opportunities. In December 2023, the Gini coefficient, an indicator of inequality in income distribution, was 0.457 nationally, 0.432 in urban areas, and 0.470 in rural areas. These data show that poverty and inequality are closely linked, as high levels of inequality limit the effectiveness of public policies and the persistence of poverty reinforces inequality. Using a logistic regression model, it was identified that being male, identifying as Afro-Ecuadorian, residing in rural areas or Esmeraldas, and earning a low income increase the likelihood of poverty. Meanwhile, having higher education and greater economic resources reduces this risk. Therefore, research is essential to analyze and implement strategies that improve access to education, foster inclusion and territorial equity, and strengthen income generation to promote fair and inclusive development.