Shocks del mercado petrolero y rendimientos bursátiles en mercados latinoamericanos e índices internacionales de referencia, 2003–2025

Darwin Marcelo  Varela-Lascano; Javier Patricio  Cadena-Silva

doi:10.59169/pentaciencias.v8i3.1853

Authors

Darwin Marcelo Varela-Lascano Universidad Estatal de Milagro; Grupo de Investigación Bioeconomía y Biocomercio – BIOB, Universidad Regional Amazónica Ikiam-URAI https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6958-2776
Javier Patricio Cadena-Silva Universidad Estatal de Milagro; Universidad de Valladolid, 47002 Valladolid; Universidad Laica Eloy Alfaro de Manabí https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5499-5988

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59169/pentaciencias.v8i3.1853

Keywords:

Oil, financial markets, energy economics, Latin America, economic analysis

Abstract

The oil market is a significant source of disruption to the global economy, due to its influence on production costs, inflation, expectations and the valuation of financial assets. This study analyzed the dynamic response of stock market returns to oil shocks in the BSI Global index, Brazil, Chile, Peru and the United States during the period 2003–2025. A quantitative, non-experimental, longitudinal and descriptive-explanatory approach was applied, using monthly time series transformed by logarithmic differences. The augmented Dickey–Fuller test confirmed the stationarity of all variables (p = 0.001), and a VAR(1) model was estimated with 274 effective observations. The system was stable, with a maximum root of 0.2487. The impulse-response functions showed that the effects were concentrated between the first and third months and converged to zero before the twelfth month. Of the 24 estimated relationships, 6 were significant at the 95 per cent level. The variance decomposition showed that the global oil price accounted for up to 8.58 per cent of the variation in Brazil and 7.41 per cent in the United States. In conclusion, the results confirm that oil shocks generate dynamic effects on stock market returns, although their intensity, sign and duration vary across markets.

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