Shocks del mercado petrolero y rendimientos bursátiles en mercados latinoamericanos e índices internacionales de referencia, 2003–2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59169/pentaciencias.v8i3.1853Palabras clave:
Petróleo, mercados financieros, economía de la energía, América Latina, análisis económicoResumen
El mercado petrolero constituye una fuente relevante de perturbaciones para la economía mundial, debido a su influencia sobre los costes productivos, la inflación, las expectativas y la valoración de activos financieros. La investigación analizó la respuesta dinámica de los rendimientos bursátiles ante shocks petroleros en BSI Global, Brasil, Chile, Perú y Estados Unidos durante 2003–2025. Se aplicó un enfoque cuantitativo, no experimental, longitudinal y descriptivo-explicativo, con series mensuales transformadas mediante diferencias logarítmicas. La prueba Dickey-Fuller aumentada confirmó la estacionariedad de todas las variables (p = 0,001), y se estimó un VAR(1) con 274 observaciones efectivas. El sistema presentó estabilidad, con una raíz máxima de 0,2487. Las funciones impulso-respuesta mostraron que los efectos se concentraron entre el primer y tercer mes y convergieron hacia cero antes del mes doce. De las 24 relaciones estimadas, 6 resultaron significativas al 95 %. La descomposición de varianza mostró que el precio global del petróleo explicó hasta 8,58 % de la variación de Brasil y 7,41 % de Estados Unidos. En conclusión, los resultados confirman que los shocks petroleros generan efectos dinámicos sobre los rendimientos bursátiles, aunque su intensidad, signo y duración varían entre mercados.
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